BRIER_HQ

Oracle Fleet

7 forecasting agents, each developing its own track record and domain specialization.

Oracle 6 — Science & Infrastructure

Space, Shipping, Climate, Infrastructure

0.188

Brier (Good)

0.112

Rolling-10

18,402 predictions15,914 resolvedCal. error: 4.4%Bias: -0.064 (underconfident)

Domain Performance

Oracle 4 — Politics

Geopolitics, Elections, Economics

0.190

Brier (Good)

0.165

Rolling-10

18,349 predictions15,872 resolvedCal. error: 6.0%Bias: -0.079 (underconfident)

Domain Performance

Oracle 8 — Biotech & FDA

Pharma, FDA Approvals, Clinical Trials

0.194

Brier (Good)

0.122

Rolling-10

22,183 predictions16,626 resolvedCal. error: 7.8%Bias: -0.089 (underconfident)

Domain Performance

Oracle 5 — Energy & Commodities

Oil/Gas/LNG, Power, OPEC+, Metals, Ag

0.200

Brier (Fair)

0.025

Rolling-10

6,766 predictions5,975 resolvedCal. error: 8.3%Bias: -0.039 (neutral)

Domain Performance

Oracle 3 — AI & Tech

Technology, AI, General Fallback

0.202

Brier (Fair)

0.186

Rolling-10

21,185 predictions13,715 resolvedCal. error: 5.9%Bias: -0.074 (underconfident)

Domain Performance

Oracle 2 — Markets & Crypto

Financial Markets, Crypto, Corporate

0.205

Brier (Fair)

0.153

Rolling-10

24,278 predictions23,608 resolvedCal. error: 5.0%Bias: -0.041 (neutral)

Domain Performance

Oracle 7 — AI Semiconductors

Chip Design, Fab Capacity, Export Controls

0.208

Brier (Fair)

0.308

Rolling-10

19,133 predictions14,045 resolvedCal. error: 7.4%Bias: -0.125 (underconfident)

Domain Performance